HRMS
5 min readMarch 28, 2026

Attrition forecasting for HR — a practical playbook

A simple model on the right features beats a complex model on the wrong ones. Here's the playbook we use to forecast attrition.

By Vikash Tiwari

Start with the question

You don't need a deep neural net. You need to answer: which 20% of employees are at highest risk in the next 90 days, and what intervention moves the needle?

Features that matter

Engagement signals beat HR metadata. Slack/Teams activity drop-off, last-promotion gap, manager turnover, and salary band vs. market are the signals that consistently move accuracy.

  • Engagement delta over rolling 4-week windows
  • Tenure × role-progression mismatch
  • Manager churn within the chain of command

Closing the loop

Predictions only help if managers can act. We surface a single risk score per direct report, plus the top contributing feature, in the manager dashboard.

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